Above normal monsoon brings cheer as El Nino threat fades
NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon has begun on a strong note with the country getting rainfall that’s 16% above normal since June 1 and the outlook for the vital weather system getting even better as more international forecasters are saying that the rain-disrupting El Nino phenomenon is not likely this summer.
Rainfall has been above normal in every major region of the country, particularly in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, adding much-needed moisture to the soil for kharif planting and preparing the ground for a good harvest for the second consecutive year.
Initial reports of kharif planting are promising: Farmers have planted crops on 81.33 lakh hectares, which is 12.5% higher than what they had sown this time last year. The area under pulses, rice, cotton, oilseeds and coarse cereals has expanded this year, because of better rain.
The weather office said this will continue. “We are expecting above normal rainfall throughout the country in June,” said a senior India Meteorological Department official.
Total rainfall in the country from June 1, the start of the season, until June 9 was 37 mm, 16% more than the long-term average.
Heavy rainfall has also helped fill up reservoirs to a level that is higher than last year and the 10-year average, which augurs well for hydropower generation, drinking water supply and irrigation.
Northern India and Rajasthan have received almost double the normal rainfall so far, while eastern, central, western and southern India have surpluses ranging from 6% to 12%.
“These variations in rainfall activity will differ from week to week,” the official added.
This week, IMD updated its rainfall forecast to 98% of normal, which is higher than its initial forecast of 96%.
The national weather office cited receding fears of El Nino, the occurrence of which could disrupt monsoon rainfall in India, for an upgrade in its forecast. Earlier, the Australian weather office said that the prospect of El Nino had reduced considerably, although the phenomenon cannot be ruled out.
The US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its latest monthly forecast late Thursday that El Nino-neutral conditions are likely to prevail for a few months, which is the crucial period of the monsoon.
El Nino, which disrupts rainfall patterns across the world, may still appear after the summer, it said, but that is of marginal consequence for India.
According to the latest forecast of the Indian weather office, season rainfall is likely to be 96% of the average over northwest India, 100% of the normal over central India, 99% of the average over southern India and a small deficit of 4% in northeastern India, all with a model error of +/- 8%.
“Equatorial sea surface temperatures over central and eastern Pacific Ocean indicates neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions,” the department said.
The June-September monsoon has covered parts of Kerala, the Konkan on the west coast and the northeast so far. Further progress is expected along the west coast.
“Most of Maharashtra is expected to be covered by monsoon showers by June 15,” the official said.
Above-normal rainfall activity is very likely over the northeastern states, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar and the west coast (particularly over Konkan and Goa and adjoining regions) between June 16 and 22.
The remaining parts of India are likely to see below normal rainfall during the same period, IMD said.
Source: ECONOMIC TIMES