Chicago, Jan 5 — The U.S. frozen dairy aisle is rewriting its pecking order. While ice cream sales recorded marginal declines, adjacent frozen dessert categories — particularly ice milk and non-dairy-adjacent frozen dairy desserts — have stepped in to absorb demand, posting strong year-over-year (YoY) momentum, according to Circana, the Chicago-based market research firm.
Ice Cream: Soft Serve, Softer Numbers
For the 52-week period ending Nov. 2, the overall ice cream category generated US$7.5 billion in dollar sales, reflecting a 1% YoY decline, while unit sales fell 3% to 1.55 billion units.
Private label led the dollar leaderboard, inching ahead with a 1% YoY rise to US$1.6 billion, though units slipped 1% to 411 million — a reminder that even the crowd favorite aisle brands aren’t immune to texture-driven consumer mood swings.
Among the top 10 ice cream sellers, two brands delivered standout performance:
- Ben & Jerry’s (South Burlington, Vermont) posted a 5.5% YoY rise to US$1.1 billion, with unit growth of 5.3% to nearly 200 million, securing the No. 3 position in the category.
- Tillamook County Creamery (Oregon) reported a 9% YoY surge to US$434 million, ranking No. 5, alongside a 2% rise in unit sales to 76 million.
Ice Milk & Frozen Dairy Desserts: The Unexpected MVP
The loudest disruption came from the ice milk/frozen dairy desserts subcategory, which skyrocketed 29% YoY to US$652 million in dollar sales and recorded a 33% jump to 154 million units.
The top performers in this segment included:
- Unilever’s Good Humor brand led the pack, delivering a 32% YoY gain to US$279.5 million, backed by a 36% YoY jump to 62 million units.
- Dreyer’s Grand Ice Cream (Oakland, California) entered the triple-digit gainer club with 103% YoY dollar growth to US$106 million and 91% YoY unit growth to 24 million — enough to claim the No. 3 slot in the subcategory.
- Binggrae Co. Ltd. (Seoul, South Korea) recorded a remarkable 861% YoY dollar leap to US$809,769, paired with 842% unit growth to 134,350, capturing the No. 8 position.
But the true headline grabber was Magnolia Bakery (New York City). The boutique dessert chain reported a jaw-dropping 5,618% YoY surge in dollar sales to US$353,619, along with a 5,567% increase in units to 31,691, making it the only entrant in the quadruple-digit gainer club this cycle.
Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices: Cooling Off, But Sales Heat Up
The sherbet/sorbet/ices segment also recorded healthy traction, with 7% YoY growth to US$295 million and 6% unit growth to 68 million.
Private label again led the category, growing 4% YoY to US$91 million, alongside a 5% unit rise to 25 million.
Dreyer’s continued its strong run in this segment too, posting a 60% YoY dollar rise to US$23 million and 55% YoY unit growth to 4.8 million, ranking it No. 3 in sherbet/sorbet sales.
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Frozen Yogurt/Tofu: Not Melting Down, But Definitely Defrosting
Not every category enjoyed dessert-style momentum. Frozen yogurt/tofu dollar sales declined 5% YoY to US$301 million, though unit sales saw a smaller 3% dip to 70 million.
Amid the slowdown:
- Ben & Jerry’s still topped this segment, defying the downturn with 3% YoY growth in both dollar sales (US$84 million) and units (17 million).
- Mayfield Dairy Farms (Athens, Tennessee) eked out a 0.3% YoY dollar gain to US$2.8 million, with a 1% unit rise to 596,122.
Market Takeaway
Consumer demand may be shifting away from mainstream ice cream formats, but the broader frozen dairy ecosystem remains robust, with growth migrating toward digestible dairy alternatives, boutique dessert brands, and clean-label frozen indulgence segments.
Ice cream isn’t out of the game — it’s just being out-whipped, out-labeled, and out-snapped by curds, ices, and trend-resilient niche players.
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