Global dairy trade continues to expand at a steady annual rate of around 2%, surpassing 100 billion kilograms in liquid milk equivalent (LME) in 2025, according to the latest World Dairy Map released by RaboResearch. While overall growth remains resilient, significant shifts are reshaping the global dairy landscape, with cheese emerging as the dominant growth category and the Americas gaining export momentum.
The report highlights that global dairy trade volumes have increased from 91.1 billion kilograms in 2017 to more than 100 billion kilograms in 2025, driven by sustained consumer demand across international markets. However, the balance of global dairy exports is gradually shifting away from traditional exporters in Europe toward more competitive suppliers in the Americas.
The European Union remains the world’s largest dairy exporter, accounting for approximately 27% of global dairy trade. Nevertheless, its market share has declined from nearly 30% in 2017, reflecting increasing production constraints arising from environmental regulations, sustainability commitments, and demographic challenges within the farming community.
“Global dairy trade continues to expand at a resilient pace, but the balance of power is shifting,” said Tom Booijink, Senior Dairy Specialist at RaboResearch. “We are witnessing a gradual redistribution of export share away from Europe toward more competitive and less constrained producers in the Americas.”
Countries such as the United States, Argentina, and Uruguay have steadily strengthened their positions in global dairy markets, supported by expanding milk production and investments in processing capacity. These nations are expected to play a critical role in meeting future global dairy demand.
China, traditionally the world’s largest dairy importer, is also undergoing structural changes in its import requirements. Dairy imports have declined significantly from their peak in 2021 due to increasing domestic milk production and weaker demand across several product categories. Consequently, global exporters are increasingly targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Brazil to diversify their export portfolios.
Among dairy product categories, cheese has emerged as the undisputed growth leader. Global cheese trade has grown by nearly 40% since 2017, driven by consistent consumer demand, product diversification, and strategic investments in cheese manufacturing facilities worldwide.
“Cheese has become the undisputed growth driver of global dairy trade,” Booijink noted.
Industry experts attribute cheese’s strong performance to changing dietary preferences, the rising popularity of convenience foods, and expanding demand in both developed and developing markets. The product’s versatility across retail, foodservice, and industrial applications continues to support robust international trade.
Whey products are also gaining strategic importance despite comparatively lower trade volumes. Growing consumer interest in protein-rich diets, sports nutrition products, functional foods, and the increasing adoption of weight-management medications are contributing to higher whey prices and improved market value.
Other dairy commodities have exhibited mixed market trends. Global butter trade experienced strong growth in 2025, largely supported by a surge in exports from the United States. In contrast, milk powder markets remain relatively subdued as demand growth moderates and export dynamics evolve among major producing regions.
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Looking ahead, RaboResearch projects that global dairy trade will continue expanding at approximately 2% annually over the long term. However, future growth will largely depend on which regions can sustainably increase milk production capacity.
Europe’s production growth is expected to remain limited due to regulatory pressures and structural constraints. In contrast, the United States and Argentina are currently viewed as the most competitive and capable suppliers to meet rising global dairy demand.
“The future of dairy trade growth increasingly depends on who can deliver additional milk,” Booijink said. “At this stage, the United States and Argentina stand out as the regions best positioned to supply the next wave of global dairy demand.”
The findings underscore a broader transformation in the global dairy sector—one marked by changing trade flows, evolving consumer preferences, and growing opportunities for export-oriented dairy economies. As cheese continues to drive international demand and emerging markets gain prominence, the industry’s future will increasingly hinge on sustainable production expansion and strategic market diversification.
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