Cow numbers and per-cow output both rise, driving nationwide supply growth
U.S. milk production continued its upward trajectory into January 2026, supported by a larger dairy herd and higher productivity per cow, according to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA’s preliminary January Milk Production report, released on Feb. 20, showed total U.S. milk output at 19.81 billion pounds, marking a 3.2% increase compared to January 2025.
January 2026 Snapshot (Year-over-Year)
- U.S. milk production: 19.81 billion pounds (+3.2%)
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.58 million head (+189,000)
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,068 pounds (+24 pounds)
- 24 major dairy states production: 19.058 billion pounds (+3.4%)
- 24-state cow numbers: 9.154 million head (+200,000)
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,082 pounds (+24 pounds)
Dairy Herd Continues to Expand
The U.S. dairy herd reached 9.58 million head in January 2026, an increase of 189,000 cows from a year earlier. In the 24 major dairy-producing states, cow numbers rose by 200,000 head to 9.154 million.
Seventeen states reported herd growth compared to January 2025, while four states recorded declines.
- Kansas and Texas led national herd expansion, adding a combined 82,000 cows.
- Washington and Pennsylvania partially offset gains, reducing a combined 28,000 head.
Milk Output Per Cow Improves
National average milk output per cow rose by 24 pounds year-over-year, reaching 2,068 pounds for January. Similar gains were observed across the 24 major dairy states.
Performance varied significantly by region due to weather patterns, feed costs, and farm income margins.
- California recorded the largest productivity gain, with output per cow increasing by 90 pounds compared to the same month last year.
- Texas followed with a 45-pound increase.
State-Level Production Trends
Overall production growth was widespread. Nineteen states increased output by a combined 712 million pounds, while five states saw a combined decline of 77 million pounds.
Top volume gainers:
- California: +158 million pounds
- Texas: +113 million pounds
- Kansas: +96 million pounds
Largest volume declines:
- Washington: −31 million pounds
- Pennsylvania: −25 million pounds
- New Mexico: −19 million pounds
In percentage terms, Kansas emerged as the fastest-growing state, with milk production surging 26.09% year-over-year. South Dakota followed at 10.9%, and Texas at 7.61%.
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Meanwhile, production declined 6.07% in Washington and 3.76% in New Mexico.
Outlook
With both herd expansion and improved per-cow productivity contributing to supply growth, U.S. milk production appears firmly positioned on an upward trend entering 2026. Continued gains will likely depend on feed costs, weather conditions, export demand, and overall farm profitability in the months ahead.
The January data reinforces a clear message: more cows, more milk — and a steadily expanding U.S. dairy supply base.
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