New Delhi: Rising temperatures linked to climate change are not only reducing the amount of milk produced by dairy cows but are also lowering its nutritional and commercial value, according to a new study that warns of mounting economic losses for dairy farmers.
Researchers found that heat stress causes a decline in the fat and protein content of milk—two key components that determine milk prices in many markets. The findings suggest that the financial impact of declining milk quality is comparable to losses caused by reduced milk production, effectively doubling the economic burden on the dairy sector.
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analyzed data from approximately 6.5 million dairy cows across 43 U.S. states between 2007 and 2016.
“The heat-induced dilution of these valuable milk components is happening a bit under the radar,” said Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, associate professor at Cornell University’s Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management and senior author of the study.
“When you account for the deterioration in milk composition, the economic loss ends up being of the same order of magnitude as the yield effect, so it basically doubles the damage,” he added.
Quality Loss Begins Before Production Drops
Using detailed weather records and milk production data, researchers discovered that while milk yield declines sharply once cows experience high levels of heat and humidity, the reduction in milk quality begins much earlier.
According to the study, milk fat and protein levels start falling gradually even at moderate temperatures, well before significant declines in milk output become visible.
“If it’s a day in the 60s or 70s, you don’t see any effect on yield, but the milk starts to get diluted gradually,” Ortiz-Bobea explained. “Unlike the yield effect, which only happens in the summer, this is happening all the time.”
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The researchers estimated that a 10-point increase in the temperature-humidity index leads to a 1.2 percent decline in milk production but a much larger 2.8 percent reduction in annual dairy revenue.
For the U.S. dairy industry, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the country’s animal-product output, that translates into an estimated annual loss of $1.65 billion.
Limited Signs of Adaptation
The study found little evidence that dairy cattle have become more resilient to rising temperatures despite years of exposure to warmer conditions.
Researchers observed almost no significant variation in heat sensitivity among cows of different ages, farm sizes or geographic regions. Instead, adaptation has largely occurred through shifts in where dairy farming takes place, with production increasingly concentrated in cooler northern regions.
“This is why we have a lot of cows in the northern, cooler regions, like New York and Wisconsin,” said lead author Jeisson Prieto, a doctoral researcher involved in the study.
However, he noted that temperature thresholds affecting milk quality and quantity remain critical for all dairy-producing regions and may become even more important as global temperatures continue to rise.
Call for Climate-Resilient Breeding
The findings also raise questions about the dairy industry’s long-standing focus on increasing milk output without adequately considering climate resilience.
“A lot of the innovation in the industry has been focused on a few indicators around increasing output,” Ortiz-Bobea said. “We see productivity rising but sensitivity to climate might be rising as well, and we’re not selecting for those traits that might make cows more resilient.”
Researchers hope that future studies using more detailed, cow-specific data will help identify animals that are naturally better equipped to withstand heat stress. Such insights could support breeding programs aimed at balancing productivity with climate resilience.
Implications Beyond the Farm
The study underscores a growing challenge for dairy producers worldwide as climate change intensifies heat stress on livestock. Beyond reducing production volumes, warming temperatures may quietly erode milk quality, affecting farmer incomes, dairy processors and consumers alike.
With global temperatures projected to rise further in the coming decades, researchers warn that addressing heat resilience in dairy farming may become as important as improving productivity itself.
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