Weak El Nino likely, won’t disrupt monsoon

NEW DELHI: The rain disrupting El Niño still has a 50% chance of developing later this year albeit weakly, while prospects of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — a phenomenon that strengthens monsoon in the country—forming over the Indian Ocean are looking good.

“Five of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm above El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017,” Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest outlook on Tuesday. “However, virtually all models now suggest less warming is likely to occur compared to their previous outlooks, indicating any event may be weak.”

The Indian Meteorological Department is also keeping a close watch. “There is a probability of El Niño forming later this year but it is still low,” said a senior IMD official, adding that the department will be able to give a clearer picture next month.
The Australian bureau said sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific have been half a degree warmer than average over the past month. “Further warming in the coming fortnight is unlikely, with all other El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators remaining neutral,” it added.

“With the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average and around half the international climate models reaching El Niño levels later in the year, development of El Niño in 2017 cannot be be ruled out,” the bureau said.

However, both national and international forecasts agree on the IOD. “IOD will either be positive or neutral,” said the IMD official. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also said four of six climate models predict likelihood of IOD during the winter. Even if El Niño forms during the latter half of this year, a positive IOD will help offset its drying effects.
The Bureau predicts the arrival of southwest monsoons in India in the first week of June, deviating slightly from IMD’s predicted date of May 30. “Based on recent progress, it is expected that the Indian Monsoon onset at Kerala will occur in the first week of June – close to the climatological average onset date,” it said.
 

Source: ECONOMIC TIMES